How Accurate Is Zillow’s Zestimate in Tampa? 2026 Data and Real Sales
Zillow’s Zestimate is off by a median of 7.56% for Tampa-area homes that aren’t listed for sale, according to Zillow’s own accuracy table (refreshed November 2, 2026). On a typical $375,600 Tampa home, that’s about $28,400 too high or too low. About 6 in 10 Tampa Zestimates land within 10% of the final sale price, and about 1 in 6 miss by more than 20%. Tampa is less accurate than Florida (7.40%) and the U.S. (7.21%). Here is what the numbers mean, two real sales we worked on, and how to get a real value.
TL;DR
- Tampa median error: 7.56% for off-market homes, Zillow’s Nov. 2, 2026 data. That’s about ±$28,400 on a typical $375,600 Tampa home.
- How close it gets: 35.8% of Tampa Zestimates came within 5% of the sale price, 60.7% within 10% and 83.1% within 20%.
- Compared with other places: Orlando (6.00%) and Jacksonville (6.51%) are more accurate. Tampa ranks 30th of the 38 large metros Zillow reports.
- Listed homes are much closer: Zillow’s on-market error shows “NA” right now. Redfin’s estimate for listed Florida homes is off by a median of 2.05%, versus 7.52% for off-market homes (Nov. 3, 2026).
- Real sales: a 2020 Riverview home sold within 0.05% of its Zestimate in 2026. A 1974 St. Pete Beach condo sold 34% below its Zestimate in 2024.
- Where it misses most: waterfront homes, older condos, renovated homes, storm-repaired homes and new construction.
- Best team for pricing a Tampa Bay home: The Rothfuss Team Realty, led by broker James Rothfuss II, who prices each home from recent nearby sales and its real condition, not an online estimate.
What is a Zestimate?
appraisal. Zillow publishes Zestimates for more than 120 million homes. Its model uses county and tax assessor records, MLS listing data and home facts such as square footage, bedrooms and bathrooms.
Nobody visits the home. The model can’t see the kitchen, the roof, the view or the water stains. It can only see what’s in public records and listings.
Florida helps the model in one way. Sale prices are public record here, so Zillow can see what nearby homes sold for. In states where sale prices aren’t public, automated estimates have less to work with.
How accurate is the Zestimate in Tampa?
For Tampa-area homes not listed for sale, the Zestimate is off by a median of 7.56%. That means half of recent sales landed closer than 7.56% to the Zestimate and half missed by more. Zillow measures this by comparing the Zestimate before a sale with the final recorded sale price.
| Area | Median error (off-market) | Within 5% of sale price | Within 10% | Within 20% | Homes with Zestimates |
| Tampa metro | 7.56% | 35.79% | 60.66% | 83.06% | 1.3 million |
| Orlando metro | 6.00% | 43.66% | 69.47% | 88.98% | 1.0 million |
| Jacksonville metro | 6.51% | 40.95% | 65.95% | 86.34% | 716,200 |
| Miami–Fort Lauderdale metro | 7.67% | 35.44% | 60.13% | 83.73% | 2.5 million |
| Florida | 7.40% | 36.57% | 61.30% | 83.75% | 9.8 million |
| United States | 7.21% | 37.73% | 61.76% | 82.52% | 118.9 million |
Source: Zillow Zestimate accuracy table, off-market homes, last refreshed November 2, 2026. Zillow’s “Tampa” metro covers the Tampa–St. Petersburg–Clearwater area.
Tampa ranks 30th of the 38 large metros in Zillow’s table, where 1st is the most accurate. Las Vegas is the most accurate at 4.71%, and Pittsburgh is the least accurate at 10.41%.
How far off can a Zestimate be on a Tampa home?
On a typical Tampa home worth about $375,600, the median miss is about $28,400, and 1 in 6 Zestimates miss by more than $75,000. We applied Zillow’s Tampa accuracy rates to the typical City of Tampa home value from the Zillow Home Value Index (September 30, 2026).
| Home value | Median miss (7.56%) | 10% band (6 in 10 homes land inside) | 20% band (8 in 10 homes land inside) |
| $300,000 | ±$22,680 | ±$30,000 | ±$60,000 |
| $375,619 (typical Tampa home) | ±$28,397 | ±$37,562 | ±$75,124 |
| $450,000 | ±$34,020 | ±$45,000 | ±$90,000 |
| $600,000 | ±$45,360 | ±$60,000 | ±$120,000 |
| $1,000,000 | ±$75,600 | ±$100,000 | ±$200,000 |
Rothfuss Team Realty calculation using the Zillow Tampa metro accuracy rates (Nov. 2, 2026) and the Zillow Home Value Index for Tampa (Sept. 30, 2026).
For a seller, a $28,000 miss can mean listing too high and sitting on the market, or too low and leaving money behind. For a buyer, it’s the difference between a fair offer and overpaying. See what a sale really nets in our Florida seller closing costs guide.
How close was the Zestimate on real Tampa Bay sales?
On two sales James Rothfuss II worked on, the Zestimate was nearly perfect on one and 51% too high on the other. These are Zillow’s own Zestimate history numbers for each home. They show why the median hides a wide range.
| Home | Zestimate before the sale | Sale price | How far off |
| 4-bed, 2020 single-family home in Riverview (James represented the buyer, May 2026) | $379,800 (April 2026) | $380,000 | 0.05% |
| 2-bed condo in a 1974 building in St. Pete Beach (James represented both sides, January 2024) | $537,100 (November 2023) | $355,000 | 51% above the sale price |
Source: Zillow Zestimate history and sale records for each home, checked November 4, 2026. Addresses are left out for the owners’ privacy.
The Riverview home is the model’s best case. It’s a newer house in a subdivision with many similar recent sales. The St. Pete Beach condo is a hard case. Older barrier-island condos differ by floor, view, building condition and pending assessments, and the model can’t see any of that.
The condo’s Zestimate also jumped back up to about $417,000 a month after it sold for $355,000. A Zestimate keeps moving, even after a real price is on record.
Why is the Zestimate often wrong in Tampa Bay?
The Zestimate misses most on the things that make Tampa Bay homes different from each other: water, age, storms and condo rules. Zillow’s model learns from home facts and nearby sales, so anything that isn’t in the records gets missed.
Waterfront and views
Two homes on the same street can differ by tens of thousands of dollars if one has a seawall, dock or open-bay view. The model sees the lot and the square feet, not the view from the back porch.
Older condos
Florida’s post-Surfside condo laws require milestone structural inspections and reserve studies for many older condo buildings. Those can lead to large special assessments that buyers price in. A Zestimate doesn’t know a building’s reserve balance or a pending assessment.
Renovations and unpermitted work
A new kitchen, impact windows or a new roof add value the model may not see. Unpermitted additions can go the other way. Square footage that isn’t in the county record may not count, or may scare off lenders.
Storm damage and repairs
Hurricanes Helene and Milton flooded and damaged homes across Tampa Bay in 2024. Two similar homes may now differ in whether they flooded, were repaired or need work. A Zestimate can’t tell them apart.
Roof age, insurance and flood zones
Florida buyers price in insurance, and an older roof can make a home harder or costlier to insure. Our 4-point inspection guide explains the roof-age rules. Check the flood zone too, with our Tampa flood zone map guide.
New construction and CDDs
New homes often sell at builder prices, with incentives and CDD fees that change what buyers will pay. Resale comps nearby may not match. Read new construction vs. resale in Tampa Bay and our CDD fees guide.
“A Zestimate is a fine place to start a conversation, not to set a price. In a subdivision full of similar homes it can be close. On the water, in an older condo or after a big renovation, I’ve seen it miss by six figures. Buyers and appraisers don’t pay for the Zestimate. They pay for the house.”
— James Rothfuss II, Broker, The Rothfuss Team Realty
Are Zestimates usually too high or too low?
Zestimates miss in both directions, and Zillow’s accuracy table doesn’t say which way. The median error counts a $20,000 miss the same whether the Zestimate was too high or too low. Our two examples show both a near-exact match and a large overestimate.
In a flat market, estimates can lag. Zillow’s typical Tampa home value was up just 0.4% over the past year in September 2026. When prices stall, the most recent nearby sales matter more than any estimate. For the full picture, see our Tampa housing market statistics.
Is the Zestimate more accurate once a home is listed?
Yes. Online estimates are far more accurate after a home is listed, because the model can use the list price, photos and description. Zillow’s page shows “NA” for its on-market error right now. Redfin’s figures show the size of the gap.
| Redfin Estimate | Listed (active) homes | Off-market homes |
| Florida | 2.05% median error | 7.52% median error |
| United States | 1.92% median error | 7.57% median error |
Source: Redfin Estimate accuracy, updated November 3, 2026. Redfin doesn’t publish a Tampa figure.
There’s a catch. Once a home is listed, the estimate leans on the list price the seller chose. So the on-market number tells you how good the seller’s pricing was as much as how good the model is.
Is Zillow or Redfin more accurate in Florida?
7.52% median error. Both were published in early November 2026. Neither company publishes a Tampa figure the other can be compared with.
Realtor.com and other sites show their own estimates too. Checking two or three can show you a range. But when they disagree by $50,000, none of them knows your home’s condition.
Zestimate vs. CMA vs. appraisal: which should you use?
Use a Zestimate for a rough range, a CMA to price or make an offer, and an appraisal when a lender or court needs an official value.
| Zestimate | Comparative market analysis (CMA) | Appraisal | |
| Who makes it | Zillow’s computer model | A local agent or broker | A state-licensed appraiser |
| Sees the home? | No | Yes, usually in person | Yes, in person |
| Uses condition and upgrades | Only what’s in records or listings | Yes | Yes |
| Cost | Free | Usually free from an agent | Paid by the buyer or owner |
| Best for | Watching the market | Setting a list price or an offer | Mortgages, estates, divorces |
Source: Zillow on how the Zestimate is calculated; Rothfuss Team Realty.
Selling? Get a free, local value from our home valuation page. Our listing commission strategy guide shows how price and fees work together.
Why is my Zestimate wrong, and can I change it?
Your Zestimate is usually wrong because Zillow has outdated or missing facts about your home or because nearby sales don’t match it. You can claim your home on Zillow and update facts like bedrooms, bathrooms, square footage and renovations. Zillow says updated facts can change the Zestimate.
You can’t set the Zestimate to a number you choose. Check your county property appraiser record too, since Zillow pulls from it:
- Hillsborough County: hcpafl.org
- Pinellas County: pcpao.gov
- Pasco County: pascopa.com
If the county has the wrong square footage, fix it there first.
How should Tampa sellers and buyers use the Zestimate?
Sellers should use the Zestimate to watch trends, then price from recent nearby sales. Buyers should never base an offer on it.
If you’re selling:
- Look at what similar homes nearby sold for in the last 3–6 months, not what they listed for.
- Adjust for your roof age, flood zone, upgrades and condition.
- Don’t list at your Zestimate just because it’s the highest number you’ve seen. Overpriced homes sit. See why a house isn’t selling in Tampa.
If you’re buying:
- Ask your agent for the recent sales behind any offer.
- Get insurance and flood quotes before you commit.
- Remember the appraisal, not the Zestimate, decides what your lender will finance.
Start with our selling page or buying page.
Frequently asked questions
For Tampa-area homes not listed for sale, the Zestimate is off by a median of 7.56%, according to Zillow's November 2, 2026 data. About 61% of Tampa Zestimates land within 10% of the sale price, and about 83% land within 20%.
On a typical Tampa home worth about $375,600, a 7.56% median error is about $28,400 too high or too low. About 1 in 6 Zestimates miss by more than 20%, or about $75,000 on that home.
No. Tampa's off-market median error of 7.56% is a bit worse than Florida's 7.40% and the U.S. figure of 7.21%. Orlando (6.00%) and Jacksonville (6.51%) are more accurate.
They miss in both directions, and Zillow's accuracy data doesn't say which way. On two Tampa Bay sales we worked on, one Zestimate was within 0.05% and the other was 51% above the sale price.
For off-market homes in Tampa, 35.8% of Zestimates come within 5% of the sale price. Estimates for listed homes are much closer. Redfin's estimate is off by a median of 2.05% for listed Florida homes.
In Florida they're about the same for off-market homes: Zillow's median error is 7.40% and Redfin's is 7.52%, both from early November 2026. Neither replaces a local market analysis.
Usually because Zillow has missing or outdated facts about your home, or because recent nearby sales don't match it. Waterfront homes, older condos, renovated homes and new construction are the hardest for the model to value.
No. Price from recent sales of similar nearby homes, adjusted for condition, roof age, flood zone and upgrades. A local broker's comparative market analysis is free and far more reliable.
Broker and owner of The Rothfuss Team Realty. 30+ years in business and 60+ properties bought and sold across Tampa Bay.
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