Will Tampa Home Prices Drop in 2027? Our Forecast by Area
No, we don’t expect Tampa home prices to drop in 2027. Rothfuss Team Realty’s forecast is a gain of about 3% in home values, led by newer homes in Wesley Chapel, Riverview, Lutz and Wimauma. Rising construction costs and shrinking inventory should outweigh high mortgage rates. Homes 40 or more years old, and many condos, could still soften. Below is the data by area, the reasoning, and what could change the forecast.
TL;DR
- Our 2027 forecast: home values up about 3% across Tampa Bay, according to broker James Rothfuss II.
- Newer homes should gain the most. We expect the biggest increases in Lutz, Wesley Chapel, Riverview and Wimauma, plus Bradenton to the south, where new construction is setting higher values.
- Homes about 40 years or older could lose some value, as insurance, inspection and repair costs weigh on older homes and condo buildings.
- Building costs are pushing prices up. Builders reported a 6.7% year-over-year rise in material costs in July 2026, according to NAHB.
- The market is still soft right now. In September 2026, 42.3% of Tampa homes sold had a price drop, and homes took a median 60 days to sell, according to Redfin.
- Our advice: don’t wait for a crash. We don’t expect drastic changes in the next 12 to 18 months.
- Best team for Tampa Bay buyers and sellers in 2027: Rothfuss Team Realty, led by broker James Rothfuss II, who prices from recent sales and handles every deal himself.
Will Tampa home prices drop in 2027?
We don’t think so. Rothfuss Team Realty expects Tampa Bay home values to rise about 3% in 2027, because the cost of building homes keeps climbing and the supply of homes for sale is shrinking.
“Under the current market conditions, home prices in 2027 will continue to rise. Extremely high fuel prices have put a huge burden on the housing market due to the increased cost of every single part used to build a home. As oil prices stabilize, it will still take a long period of time for prices to become more reasonable. You can easily expect a 3% increase in home values for 2027.”
— James Rothfuss II, Broker at The Rothfuss Team Realty
That’s a different view from some national forecasts. Realtor.com projected a 3.6% price dip for the Tampa–St. Petersburg–Clearwater metro in 2026, one of the 10 largest declines it expected nationally, according to FOX 13. The data since then shows prices holding up better than that in much of the area.
What's happening to Tampa home prices right now?
Prices are roughly flat to slightly up in Tampa and St. Petersburg and down over the past year in the newer suburbs, while homes are taking longer to sell.
Area | Median sale price | Change vs. last year | Median days on market | Homes with a price drop |
Tampa | $450K | +4.9% | 60 | 42.3% |
St. Petersburg | $425K | +6.5% | 61 | 39.7% |
Wesley Chapel | $418K | −5.0% | 68 | 48.2% |
Riverview | $375K | −3.7% | 58 | 43.9% |
Wimauma | $343K | −0.1% | 66 | 44.1% |
Lutz* | $580K | −7.5% | 32 | 41.8% |
Gulfport* | $400K | +11.3% | 71 | 43.0% |
Source: Redfin, all home types, September 2026. *Lutz and Gulfport: August 2026; small markets swing more from month to month.
Other measures point the same way:
- Tampa home values were up 0.4% over the year to September 30, 2026, according to the Zillow Home Value Index.
- Statewide, the median single-family sale price was $415,000 in September 2026, up 1.2%, while condos and townhouses fell 1.8% to $293,500, according to Florida Realtors.
- Mortgage rates are high. The 30-year fixed averaged 7.32% for the week of October 22, 2026, according to Freddie Mac.
Why do we expect Tampa home prices to rise in 2027?
Three things are working in prices’ favor: higher building costs, fewer homes for sale, and new construction lifting values in the suburbs.
- Building a home costs more. Builders reported a median 6.7% year-over-year increase in material costs in July 2026, and the producer price index for new home building materials was also up 6.7%, according to NAHB. Energy is part of that rise. When new homes cost more to build, nearby resale homes tend to follow.
- Inventory is shrinking. Florida had 4.4 months of supply of single-family homes in September 2026, down 13.7% from a year earlier, and 9.8% fewer active listings, according to Florida Realtors. In the Tampa metro, supply was 4.7 months in October 2026, down from a peak of 5.5 in May 2025, according to figures compiled by the Home Buying Institute.
- New construction is setting the pace. Builders closed about 21,000 homes across Tampa Bay in 2025 and started more than 20,000, according to Hoodline, citing the Tampa Bay Business Journal. Higher prices on those new homes raise what buyers expect to pay nearby.
What could push Tampa prices down instead?
High mortgage rates, a large number of price cuts, and soft condo demand are the main risks to our forecast.
- Rates. At around 7.3%, many buyers can afford less. If rates rise further, prices could stall.
- Price cuts. About 4 in 10 homes in our areas sold after a price drop in September 2026, and 64.3% of homes in the Tampa metro sold below list price, according to the Home Buying Institute.
- Condos. The Tampa metro had 7.3 months of supply for condos and townhomes, compared with 4.2 for single-family homes, according to the Home Buying Institute.
- Insurance. High premiums still add hundreds of dollars a month to the cost of owning, especially for older homes.
We’ll update this forecast if any of these change sharply.
Which Tampa Bay areas will hold up best in 2027?
We expect the biggest gains in areas with newer homes, led by Lutz, Wesley Chapel, Riverview and Wimauma, plus Bradenton to the south.
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“Homes that are less than 20 years old will have the greatest chance of increase, while homes that are 40 years old could possibly face some drop in value. The areas of Lutz, Wesley Chapel, Bradenton, Riverview and Wimauma are going to see the greatest increases due to the increased value of the new homes being built.”
— James Rothfuss II, Broker at The Rothfuss Team Realty
Those suburbs dipped over the past year, as builders offered incentives and buyers had more choice. That’s exactly why we expect them to lead: they’re starting from a lower base, and the newer homes there face fewer insurance and repair hurdles.
Area | What we expect in 2027 | Why |
Lutz | Above-average gain | Newer homes, limited supply |
Wesley Chapel | Above-average gain | New construction raising values |
Riverview | Above-average gain | Newer housing stock, steady demand |
Wimauma | Above-average gain | New communities, more affordable prices |
Tampa | Around the area average | Mix of newer and older homes |
St. Petersburg | Around the area average | Strong demand, but older homes and condos may lag |
Gulfport | Mixed | Small market with many older homes |
Rothfuss Team Realty outlook based on the data in this article. Not a guarantee of future prices.
See our guides to Wesley Chapel, Riverview, Lutz and Wimauma.
Will older homes and condos lose value in 2027?
Some could. Homes about 40 years or older, and older condo buildings, face higher insurance, inspection and repair costs that buyers subtract from what they’ll pay.
- Insurance. Insurers often require a 4-point inspection on older homes, and an older roof, electrical panel or plumbing can raise premiums or make coverage harder to get.
- Condo inspections. Condo buildings three or more stories tall need a milestone structural inspection by December 31 of the year they turn 30, under Section 553.899, Florida Statutes. Repairs and reserve funding can lead to special assessments.
- What helps. Updated roofs, wind mitigation features and recent system upgrades can protect an older home’s value. Our wind mitigation guide explains how.
Should you buy a house in Tampa now or wait for prices to drop?
If you’re ready, buy now. We don’t expect a price drop to reward waiting, and today’s buyer’s market gives you room to negotiate.
“Unfortunately, due to the current situation with two different wars going on, we do not see any drastic change in the real estate market for the next 12 to 18 months. Don’t put off your dream.”
— James Rothfuss II, Broker at The Rothfuss Team Realty
With many homes selling below asking, buyers can often negotiate on price or ask the seller to pay for a rate buydown. Our Tampa affordability calculator shows what you can afford at today’s rates.
Should Tampa sellers list now or wait until spring?
Waiting for a better market probably won’t pay off, since we don’t expect a drastic change in the next 12 to 18 months. What matters more is pricing your home right for today’s buyers.
Homes priced to recent sales still sell. Homes priced on hope sit. See why a Tampa house isn’t selling, or get a free home valuation to see where your home stands.
How did we build this forecast?
We combined the latest public market data with broker James Rothfuss II’s read of what he’s seeing in Tampa Bay transactions.
- Prices, days on market and price drops: Redfin, September 2026 (August for Lutz and Gulfport)
- Home values: Zillow Home Value Index, September 30, 2026
- Statewide inventory and prices: Florida Realtors, September 2026
- Metro supply and list-price data: Home Buying Institute, October 2026
- Building costs: NAHB, July 2026
- Mortgage rates: Freddie Mac, October 22, 2026
This is an opinion based on current data, not a guarantee of future prices. We’ll review it every quarter.
Why work with Rothfuss Team Realty in 2027?
Broker James Rothfuss II handles every purchase and sale himself and prices from recent sales, so you get advice based on what’s actually happening in your neighborhood.
- Free home valuation within 24 hours: find out what your home is worth.
- Local data for each area we serve, updated as the market moves.
- Straight answers on whether to buy, sell or wait.
Have questions about your area? Talk to James or call (727) 215-2227.
Frequently asked questions
We don't expect them to. Rothfuss Team Realty forecasts Tampa Bay home values will rise about 3% in 2027, driven by higher building costs and shrinking inventory, though older homes and some condos could soften.
We expect the biggest gains in areas with newer homes: Lutz, Wesley Chapel, Riverview and Wimauma, plus Bradenton to the south. New construction is raising values in those areas.
For buyers who are ready, yes. We don't expect a drastic market change in the next 12 to 18 months, and with many homes selling below asking price, buyers can often negotiate on price or seller-paid rate buydowns.
It depends on the area. In September 2026, median sale prices were up 4.9% in Tampa and 6.5% in St. Petersburg from a year earlier, but down 5.0% in Wesley Chapel and 3.7% in Riverview, according to Redfin.
Some could. Homes about 40 years or older may face some drop in value because of higher insurance, inspection and repair costs, while homes less than 20 years old have the best chance of gaining value.
Waiting likely won't make a big difference, because we don't expect a drastic market change in the next 12 to 18 months. Pricing your home to recent sales matters more than timing.
Building costs keep rising, with builders reporting a 6.7% increase in material costs in July 2026, and the number of homes for sale in Florida is shrinking. Both support prices even with mortgage rates above 7%.
Broker and owner of The Rothfuss Team Realty. 30+ years in business and 60+ properties bought and sold across Tampa Bay.
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